Some Final Thoughts
What did I do in Chile? Here are some things!
1. Installed weather stations in the 'impacted' and 'reference' watersheds at Coyhaique Alto, Aysén: Here are thorough discussions of the installation of the stations and the observed differences between the sites. I determined that meteorology only partially explains the observed differences in streamflow in these two watersheds. Differences in the soil stratigraphy/layering, vegetation, underlying geology, and groundwater contributions likely play a large role in determining the seasonal patterns in streamflow. My collaborators will continue to maintain the stations at Coyhaique Alto and hopefully produce a 2-4 year record that can serve as the basis for a journal publication.
2. Developed an informal collaboration with a water manager at the Dirección General de Aguas: We share an interest in using climate variables to inform streamflow allocations in a way that balances human consumption with ecological flows. I succeeded in demonstrating the opportunities for such a methodology by compiling and analyzing historical streamflow, precipitation, and temperature data both in the region of Aysén and Chile at large. To bring this goal to completion, existing statistical techniques for calculating 'flow exceedence probabilities' as a function of climate indices (Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and long-term changes in precipitation and temperature will need to be applied to the region's rivers, many of which have unallocated water rights. My collaborators in the region are writing a proposal to fund a Chilean student to run with these ideas. Statistics are not my expertise, so I expressed interest in serving an advisory role in this project.
3. Related observed meteorology at Coyhaique Alto to gridded data products: In these sophisticated technological times, gridded climate data exist for the entire globe, but on a very coarse scale. Using the measured data at Coyhaique Alto, I developed a set of linear regressions between observed variables (temperature, humidity etc.) and gridded data sets (mainly ERA-Interim, and the Chile-only product CR2MET). In this way, we now have a method for understanding the meteorology of our field sites in the past and present.
4. Used meteorology to model Río Coyhaique streamflow (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient = 0.74):
and drove model with simple (linear) climate forcings, demonstrating large streamflow changes in August-September, November, and April-May due to long-term reductions in precipitation and few streamflow changes due to the higher temperatures produced by an Antarctic Oscillation event (AAO):
5. Communicated methods, goals, results, and ideas throughout the project to academic research audiences as well as the general community:
6. Future work? The Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia invited me down for a post-doc following the completion (fingers crossed) of my Ph.D. I also developed an interest in telling the stories of Patagonian farmers and documenting their relationships to the land, ideas which would easily lend themselves to an application for the National Geographic Fulbright Storytelling Fellowship down the road. The Aysén region offers a multitude of opportunities for conservation and sustainable development, and I feel that my work could make a positive impact in these efforts. All that said, it feels a bit reckless, irresponsible, and "heavy" to consider a return to Patagonia. Hopefully one day I will have my personal life together in a way that would allow me to live in this remote region, but at this time, I don't think such a move would support my mental health.
1. Installed weather stations in the 'impacted' and 'reference' watersheds at Coyhaique Alto, Aysén: Here are thorough discussions of the installation of the stations and the observed differences between the sites. I determined that meteorology only partially explains the observed differences in streamflow in these two watersheds. Differences in the soil stratigraphy/layering, vegetation, underlying geology, and groundwater contributions likely play a large role in determining the seasonal patterns in streamflow. My collaborators will continue to maintain the stations at Coyhaique Alto and hopefully produce a 2-4 year record that can serve as the basis for a journal publication.
2. Developed an informal collaboration with a water manager at the Dirección General de Aguas: We share an interest in using climate variables to inform streamflow allocations in a way that balances human consumption with ecological flows. I succeeded in demonstrating the opportunities for such a methodology by compiling and analyzing historical streamflow, precipitation, and temperature data both in the region of Aysén and Chile at large. To bring this goal to completion, existing statistical techniques for calculating 'flow exceedence probabilities' as a function of climate indices (Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and long-term changes in precipitation and temperature will need to be applied to the region's rivers, many of which have unallocated water rights. My collaborators in the region are writing a proposal to fund a Chilean student to run with these ideas. Statistics are not my expertise, so I expressed interest in serving an advisory role in this project.
3. Related observed meteorology at Coyhaique Alto to gridded data products: In these sophisticated technological times, gridded climate data exist for the entire globe, but on a very coarse scale. Using the measured data at Coyhaique Alto, I developed a set of linear regressions between observed variables (temperature, humidity etc.) and gridded data sets (mainly ERA-Interim, and the Chile-only product CR2MET). In this way, we now have a method for understanding the meteorology of our field sites in the past and present.
4. Used meteorology to model Río Coyhaique streamflow (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient = 0.74):
5. Communicated methods, goals, results, and ideas throughout the project to academic research audiences as well as the general community:
6. Future work? The Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia invited me down for a post-doc following the completion (fingers crossed) of my Ph.D. I also developed an interest in telling the stories of Patagonian farmers and documenting their relationships to the land, ideas which would easily lend themselves to an application for the National Geographic Fulbright Storytelling Fellowship down the road. The Aysén region offers a multitude of opportunities for conservation and sustainable development, and I feel that my work could make a positive impact in these efforts. All that said, it feels a bit reckless, irresponsible, and "heavy" to consider a return to Patagonia. Hopefully one day I will have my personal life together in a way that would allow me to live in this remote region, but at this time, I don't think such a move would support my mental health.
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